More than half the world's population already lives in urban centers, and in two decades that number will be more than 60 percent. By 2039, our world will be home to at least 43 megacities—urban areas with more than 10 million inhabitants. How will the cities of the future deal with such an influx of people? With good design, of course. Architects, engineers, and urban planners of today are already thinking about the cities of tomorrow. First and foremost, most seem to agree, our future cities must be places designed for people—not vehicles, buildings, and businesses. Creating vibrant communities, connections, and relevance between people and place is paramount.
No one-size-fits-all solutions exist across geographic locations, as urban planning will increasingly be rooted in local culture. But cities must also be capable of sustaining transformation and addressing larger issues, including public health, climate change, and energy generation. “To thrive in the future,” says Rae Smith , a senior urban designer based in HOK’s San Francisco office, “we need to maximize the value of our built environment and leverage it to solve multiple problems at once.”
“What will be common, I think, is that all cities will have much more densely populated city centers with 24/7 programming,” says David Gianotten , managing partner-architect of OMA. “The time of the suburb and commuting to work is over. People will want to live close to their work and have all of the services they need close to the place they live. How to achieve this desired density, combined with new modes of transport, will be one of the most challenging elements of planning cities in the future—and planning future-proof cities.”
URBAN PLANNING WILL BE HUMAN-CENTRIC
To create flourishing cities of the future, designers will address issues like public health and community building. Creating vibrant downtown districts, mixed-use spaces, human-powered and intermodal transit systems, and green spaces are all critical to this goal.
Vibrant cities have great air quality, clean water, and healthy citizens. When we build cities for humans—not buildings and cars—we can achieve those things. “[People] want to be able to walk to great restaurants, entertainment, and shopping,” says Dave Williams , executive vice president of architecture at Caruso, the real estate development company that built Palisades Village, a high-end retail and mixed-use space in Los Angeles designed around the idea that a community should be authentic, highly curated, easily accessible, and green.
That kind of cityscape encourages walking and biking as well as microcommunities where people live, work, and play in the same vicinity. “We are looking to combine people-focused design with cutting-edge technology to enhance livability with a greener, more connected public realm and new levels of sustainability,” says Brian Jencek , director of planning at HOK in San Francisco.
TRANSPORTATION WILL BE CLEAN AND EFFICIENT
The advent of autonomous vehicles will revolutionize our streets. Once AVs are safe, on demand, and zero-emissions, “cities will be irreversibly transformed,” says Anthony Fieldman , a design principal in HOK’s Toronto office. Public transportation—including better connectivity between modes and hubs—will also be greatly improved. “Also, public transport will be automated,” says Gianotten, “and will be much more frequent than now.” Bike and electric scooter shares will be on every corner.
These efficiencies will free up street space formerly used by human drivers, “creating open space for commerce, fitness, and relaxation,” says urban designer Smith. This “radically pedestrian-centric streetscape,” she says, would prioritize sidewalks and bike lanes over cars, encourage more outdoor time, and position “urban centers at the forefront of addressing our national health crisis.”
Some cities are already working toward these goals. In New York City, for example—where the population is expected to reach 9 million by 2040—walking, biking, and public transit “will comprise the vast majority of all trips taken,” according to Jane Meyer , a spokesperson for New York's City Hall. Development will focus on hundreds of miles of new bike lanes and high-capacity transit hubs. To move freight, the city will turn to lower-carbon options, including marine barging and rail; green trucking will improve last-mile delivery of consumer goods.
BUILDINGS WILL BE TALL, MULTIUSE, AND HIGH-PERFORMANCE
“[Buildings] will be large-scale and will be an ecosystem, like a city that will be in use 24/7,” says OMA's Gianotten. From office skyscrapers to condominium towers, their design will focus on greater adaptability and reuse, since the way we use them has proven to be constantly in flux. They'll act as transit hubs and mixed-use spaces that better “incorporate 'live' and 'play' into the places you 'work,'” says Mark Ejnes , design principal at HOK in Los Angeles.
To accommodate skyrocketing populations but preserve open spaces, these superstructures will also be taller than we see today. Enter technology such as ropeless elevators, which can move up, down, and side to side, enabling “unprecedented possibilities in the architecture and design of buildings,” according to Gensler's annual Design Forecast . Furthermore, buildings will promote healthier living. Take the Circadian Curtain Wall concept from HOK, for example, which brings abundant natural light deep into buildings, keeping humans in touch with our natural rhythms.
ENERGY WILL BE RENEWABLE AND BE DECENTRALIZED
Because buildings are one of the biggest consumers of energy worldwide, they will become their own decentralized, renewably generated power plants. Using high-performance façades, photovoltaic panels, and geothermal and wind energy, buildings will generate their own energy, while smart technology and the smart grid will help them share it hyper-efficiently. But new ways of collecting power won't stop there. “Energy harvesting will be a part of every surface or surface material we use,” says Gianotten. “Sun and movement—wind, water, and humans—will be used to generate electricity that will be used to charge the whole city and the mobility within.”
“This is all part of a broader movement of achieving 'net zero' in the green building movement with two key strategies: energy reduction and energy creation,” says Rives Taylor , principal and firm-wide codirector of resilient design at Gensler's Houston office.
CITIES WILL BE RESILIENT—OR THEY WILL CEASE TO EXIST
Though we cannot reverse it, we can mitigate some of the effects of climate change. For coastal cities like Miami, for example, infrastructure will have to be rethought as sea level rise changes the coastline and permeates the aquifer. Canals, bridges, and offshore solutions can help reinforce resilience, but all stakeholders must ask what assets they are willing to preserve, adapt, or lose—and how to do so. Other regions, such as California, will likely suffer further drought. In these areas, capturing water from permeable surfaces and collecting and purifying stormwater runoff—something Williams designed into Palisades Village—will be critical.
Other regions will follow what's been successfully done before. Much of Holland, for example, is below sea level. It will continue to thrive, explains Gianotten, using a “combination of higher dikes and sophisticated pump systems that will bring the water out when it flows in from rising seas or large rainfall.”
Some engineering projects won't be logical or cost-effective, however, and “there are some impossible geological conditions that we can’t fix,” cautions William Kenworthey , regional leader of planning at HOK in New York. “Cities don’t last forever and, depending on the long-term realities of sea level rise, some cities may become the ‘new Atlantis.’”
GREEN SPACES WILL BE ABUNDANT
“As our day-to-day activities become increasingly tied to engagement with digital interfaces, maintaining a strong connection with the natural world becomes increasingly critical,” says David Briefel , regional design resilience leader in Gensler's New York office. Injecting green space wherever possible—microparks, balconies, green roofs, and vertical gardening, for example—will be a key feature of 2039's cities. Briefel also points out that natural elements—such as parks, green roofs, wetlands, and bioswales (landscape elements designed to concentrate or remove debris and pollution out of surface runoff water)—do double duty in combating extreme weather events and the effects of climate change.
Gianotten agrees that green spaces will become increasingly important. “They will become the entertainment and large-scale outdoor spaces of the city,” he says, “and not only the 'green lungs' anymore.”
“Parks of the future will be more open and better integrated with the community,” says Meyer of New York's City Hall. To do so, urban planners there will redesign where parks meet pavement, lower fences, and open sight lines. Former industrial sites and more waterfront will be transformed into spaces like the High Line, an accessible urban park embraced by the public. Additionally, Meyer, points out, increased tree canopy will help prevent the urban heat island effect .
As with everything else in the bright, green future, humans need easy access to those natural spaces. As HOK's Fieldman describes it, “The future is green and zen, and it all unfolds within 100 meters of your home.”
